Global inflation 2027 forecasts are rising as energy costs and geopolitical tensions create fresh economic challenges. A Reuters survey of more than 500 economists found that inflation expectations increased across 31 of 50 economies.
The October survey also revealed a mixed economic outlook. While inflation concerns are growing, economists have upgraded their global growth forecasts for both 2026 and 2027.
Economists raise global inflation forecasts
The Reuters survey found that economists increased their 2027 inflation forecasts for 31 of the 50 economies covered. This included 15 of the 21 developed economies surveyed.
The revisions indicate that inflation concerns are spreading beyond emerging markets. Even economies that previously experienced relatively stable prices are facing renewed pressure.
Over the past three quarterly surveys, median inflation forecasts for 2027 increased by:
- United Kingdom: 0.7 percentage points
- Eurozone: 0.5 percentage points
- Brazil: 0.5 percentage points
- India: 0.4 percentage points
- United States: 0.2 percentage points
These figures represent changes in economists’ forecasts, rather than actual inflation rates.
Rising energy prices add to inflation pressure
Higher energy costs remain a major concern for the global economy.
Crude oil prices have stayed above $100 per barrel since October 7. They also crossed $117 during the previous week, reaching a six-month high.
According to the Reuters report, oil prices have climbed more than 60% since the US-Israeli conflict with Iran began.
However, economists are increasingly concerned about the wider impact of higher energy costs. Rising fuel prices can increase transportation, manufacturing and distribution expenses.
Consequently, businesses may pass these additional costs on to consumers. This could make inflation more persistent across different sectors.
Janet Henry, HSBC’s global chief economist, told Reuters that her concerns about inflation had increased.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s global chief economist Seth Carpenter highlighted emerging signs of energy prices spreading into core inflation measures.
AI investment supports global economic growth
Despite inflation concerns, the global economic outlook has improved in the latest Reuters survey.
Economists now expect global economic growth of 3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Their previous July forecasts stood at 2.9% and 3.1%, respectively.
The survey also found that growth forecasts improved for 23 of the 50 economies covered.
Investment in artificial intelligence is one factor supporting economic activity. More than $1 trillion has been invested globally in AI technology since last year.
Additionally, stronger-than-expected economic activity across several regions has helped improve growth expectations.
However, the outlook remains below the International Monetary Fund’s 3.4% global growth projection for 2027 cited in the Reuters report.
Central banks face difficult interest rate decisions
Persistent inflation could create further challenges for central banks.
Policymakers must balance rising consumer prices against the need to support economic growth. If inflation spreads beyond energy costs, additional interest rate increases could become necessary.
Higher borrowing costs can affect businesses, households and investment decisions. They can also increase pressure on economies already dealing with elevated living expenses.
For now, most central banks have raised interest rates only a limited number of times or kept them unchanged.
What higher global inflation means for 2027
The latest survey highlights a complicated outlook for the global economy. Economic growth expectations are improving, but inflation risks remain elevated.
For consumers, higher energy and transportation costs could continue affecting household budgets. Meanwhile, businesses may face increased operating expenses and financing costs.
India is also part of this trend, with economists raising their median 2027 inflation forecast by 0.4 percentage points over the past three quarterly surveys.
Going forward, energy prices, geopolitical developments and AI-related investment will remain important factors shaping the global economic outlook.
The coming months will show whether stronger economic activity can continue alongside persistent inflation pressures.
